Mingzhe Yu (first author) and his co-authors' paper "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis "is published in Volume 84 of the International Review of Economics and Finance. International Review of Economics and Finance is included in ESI and SSCI databases, and is the latest A2 class journal recognized by the university.

Using China's total volume and product level data, this paper empirically studies the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on China's agricultural imports and exports. The study finds that, first, the increased uncertainty of U.S. trade policy reduces China's agricultural exports to and imports from the United States, more than the traditional exchange rate factors; Second, as China's agricultural trade shifts from North America to South America, higher US trade policy uncertainty increases China's total agricultural imports from the world; Third, product-level analysis shows that increased uncertainty about US trade policy does not threaten China's food security, but it could lead to higher import prices for some important agricultural products. The study enriches understanding of the impact of trade policy uncertainty and provides new insights for governments to protect against large fluctuations in agricultural markets and stabilize national economies.

Thesis information: Mingzhe Yu (first author), Jiachuan Fan, Haijun Wang, Jie Wang. US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports:  An aggregate and product-level analysis[J]. International Review of Economics and Finance, 2023, 84: 70-83.

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